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36 Austl. J. Leg. Phil. 114 (2011)
Avoiding Probabilistic Reasoning Fallacies in Legal Practice using Bayesian Networks

handle is hein.journals/ajlph36 and id is 118 raw text is: Avoiding Probabilistic Reasoning Fallacies in Legal Practice using Bayesian Networks NORMAN FENTON & MARTIN NEILt I. Introduction The issue of probabilistic reasoning fallacies in legal practice (hereafter referred to simply as probabilistic fallacies) is one that has been well documented, being dealt with even in populist books.' There are some excellent overviews of the most common fallacies and some of the more famous (primarily UK-based) cases in which they have occurred. There is a substantial literature dealing in general terms with one or more fallacy,3 t RADAR (Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis Research), School of Electronic Engineering and, Computer Science, Queen Mary (University of London), London El 4NS. I Examples include: G Gigerenzer, Reckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with Uncertainty (2002); J Haigh, Taking Chances: Winning with Probability (2003). 2 Examples include: C G G Aitken and F Taroni, Statistics and the evaluation of evidence (2nd ed, 2004); D J Balding, Weight-of-Evidence for Forensic DNA Profiles (2005); I W Evett and B S Weir, Interpreting DNA evidence: statistical genetics for forensic scientists (1998). 3~ Examples include: D J Balding and P Donnelly, 'Prosecutor's fallacy and DNA evidence' (1994) 711-722 Criminal Law Review; C E H Berger et al, 'Evidence evaluation: A response to the court of appeal judgement in R v T' 51 Science and Justice 43-49; W Edwards, 'Influence Diagrams, Bayesian Imperialism, and the Collins case: an appeal to reason' (1991) 13 Cardozo Law Review 1025-1079; I W Evett, 'Avoiding the transposed conditional' (1995) 35(3) Science and Justice 127-131; N Fenton and M Neil, 'The Jury Fallacy and the use of Bayesian nets to simplify probabilistic legal arguments' (2000) 36(6) Mathematics Today (Bulletin of the IMA) 180-187; C Jowett, 'Lies, Damned Lies, and DNA Statistics: DNA Match testing. Bayes' Theorem, and the Criminal Courts' (2001) 41(3) Medicine, Science and the Lawl94-205; D H Kaye, 'Two Fallacies About DNA Databanks for Law Enforcement' (2001) 67(1) Brooklyn Law Review 179-206; J J Koehler, 'The Base Rate Fallacy Myth' (1993) 4(49) Psycoloquy; R Matthews, 'The Interrogator's Fallacy' (1995) 31 Bulletin of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications 3-5; D F Percy, 'The power of Bayes' (2005) 41(4) Mathematics Today (Bulletin of the IMA) 122-125; M Redmeyne, 'DNA