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79 Foreign Aff. 32 (2000)
Russia's Ruinous Chechen War

handle is hein.journals/fora79 and id is 236 raw text is: Russia's Ruinous Chechen War Rajan Menon and Graham E. Fuller DECLINE AND FALL? THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION may be falling apart-and its war against Chechnya is showing why. Unfortunately, most observers of the war in Chechnya miss the larger implications, limiting their analysis to the struggle for independence of one small region. Moscow blames radical Islamists for the trouble. Despite the unde- niable role of fundamentalists in the Caucasus, however, Moscow had a greater hand in the federation's decline than it cares to admit. Russia's latest war with Chechnya was sparked in August 1999 when radical Islamists, many ofwhom had infiltrated from Chechnya, staged uprisings in the neighboring southern Russian republic of Dagestan. Russian troops were sent and, despite Moscow's reassurances that the conflict was under control, the operations had evolved by September into the second fill-scale war between Russia and Chechnya in five years. The innumerable deaths, the relentless bombardment of cities, and the torrent of refugees are eerily familiar, recalling the horrors of the 1994-96 Russo-Chechen war. The Russian army-even while weakened and demoralized-has been more successful this time; Russian officials are proclaiming swift progress. But no real solution-military or political-is in sight. Instead, RAJAN MENON is Monroe J. Rathbone Professor of International Relations at Lehigh University and Director of Eurasia Policy Studies at the National Bureau of Asian Research. GRAHAM E. FULLER is former Vice Chairman of the National Intelligence Council and is currently a resident consultant at RAND. [32]