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124 Monthly Lab. Rev. 21 (2001)
Labor Force Projections to 2010: Steady Growth and Changing Composition

handle is hein.journals/month124 and id is 1145 raw text is: Employment outlook: 2000-10 Labor force projections to 2010: steady growth and changing composition The labor force will grow steadily as the population and labor force ages; diversity will continue to increase Howard N Fullerton, Jr. and Mitra Toossi Howard N Fullerton, Jr. is a senior demographic statistician and Mitra Toossl is an economist in the Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics. P he civilian labor force is projected to in- crease by 17 million over the 2000-10 pe- riod, reaching 158 million in 2010.! This 12.0-percent increase is slightly greater than the 11.9-percent increase over the previous 10-year period, 1990-2000, when the labor force grew by 15 million. The projected labor force growth will be af- fected by the aging of the baby-boom genera- tion, persons born between 1946 and 1964. In 2010, the baby-boom cohort will be ages 46 to 64, and this age group will show significant growth over the 2000-10 period. The median age of the labor force will continue to rise, even though the youth labor force (aged 16 to 24) is expected to grow more rapidly than the overall labor force for the first time in 25 years. A closer view of the 2000-10 labor force re- veals that certain demographic groups are pro- jected to grow more rapidly than others. For women, the rate of growth in the labor force is expected to slow, but it will still increase at a faster rate than that of men. (See table 1.) As a result, the share of women in the labor force is projected to increase from 47 percent in 2000 to 48 percent in 2010. The number of men in the labor force is projected to grow more rapidly even though the aggregate labor force participation rate for men is projected to continue declining (from 74.7 per- cent in 2000 to a projected 73.2 percent in 2010). Race or Hispanic origin groups have shown and are projected to continue to show--widely varied growth rates because of divergent rates of population growth in the past. Among race and ethnic groups, the Asian and other labor force is projected to increase most rapidly. By 2010, the Hispanic labor force is projected to be larger than the black labor force, primarily be- cause of faster population growth. Despite slower-than-average growth and a declining share of the total labor force, white non-Hispan- ics will continue to make up more than two-thirds of the work force. This article describes the labor force projections, made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for 136 age, sex, race, or Hispanic origin groups.2 First, it dis- cusses changes in the labor force that are attrib- uted to changes in labor force participation rates or to population changes. It includes a historical per- spective, comparing two past decades with the projected decade. Then, it examines changes in the labor force based on the dynamics resulting from persons entering, leaving, or staying in the labor force. Finally, it reviews the demographic implica- tions of projected changes in the age composition of the labor force and population. The labor force projections are prepared by combining projections of the population pro- duced by the Bureau of the Census with labor force participation rate projections made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.3 Consequently, the resulting labor force reflects changes in both projections. Changes in the labor force are better understood if they are decomposed into the two components and, therefore, each of these subjects is discussed separately. Monthly Labor Review November 2001 21 F i n_ i