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1 Erica York, et al., How Taxing Consumption Would Improve Long-Term Opportunity and Well-Being for Families and Children 1 (2023)

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*0TAX FOUNDATION



HowTaxing ConsumptionWould Improve

Long-TermOpportunityandWell-Beingfor

Families and Children


Erica York      Senior Economist, Research Manager
Garrett Watson  Senior Policy Analyst, Modeling Manager
Alex Durante    Economist
Huaqun Li       Senior Economist

October 2023



Key Findings

•  Improvements in the long-run standard of living largely depend on peoples' willingness to work and
   their ability to invest in capital. Tax policy has a significant effect on removing barriers to work and
   investment.
 • All tax systems contain features that discourage work and investment, thus imposing economic costs
   that reduce living standards. Additionally, taxes impose administrative costs for the government and
   compliance costs for taxpayers.
 • Two  major types of taxes include income taxes, which generally tax people when they earn money and
   when they see changes in net worth such as returns from saving and investment, and consumption
   taxes, which generally tax people when they spend money.
 • Income taxes impose steeper economic costs, and often steeper administrative and compliance
   costs, than consumption taxes. They place a higher tax burden on saving and investment. They also
   impose significant administrative and compliance costs that undermine the large anti-poverty pro-
   grams for families and children administered through the tax code. Moving to a consumption tax
   would end the tax bias against saving and investment and provide an opportunity to greatly simplify
   anti-poverty programs embedded in the tax code.
 • We  model two revenue-neutral consumption tax reform options: replacing the corporate income tax
   with a 6.4 percent value-added tax and replacing the corporate and individual income tax with a busi-
   ness profits and progressive household compensation tax. Both options would replace major individu-
   al tax credits with a flat credit per filer and dependent.
 • Both options result in higher economic output and higher after-tax income for lower-income house-
   holds and families while raising roughly the same amount of tax revenue for the federal government in
   the long run, illustrating that pro-growth tax reform can raise long-run living standards.


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