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1 Gerald Prante, A State-by-State Estimate of the Impact of SCHIP Expansion and a 156 Percent Cigarette Tax Hike 1 (2007)

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June 28, 2007
A State-by-State Estimate of the Impact of SCHIP Expansion and a 156 Percent
Cigarette Tax Hike
by Gerald Prante
Fiscal Fact No. 88
Here we provide a simple estimate of the spending and tax changes that would occur in each
state if Senator Gordon Smith's proposal to expand federal health spending by raising the federal
excise tax on cigarettes becomes law.
Senator Smith's bill would have the federal government more than double the funding of the
State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP). This federal program currently spends
between $5 and $6 billion each year, and Sen. Smith would spend $46.5 billion more over five
years. SCHIP was originally designed to fund health insurance for children in households that
earn between 100 percent and 185 percent of the poverty guidelines ($38,203 for a family of
four), but administrators have permitted states to buy insurance for adults without children and
for higher-earning households, those within 300 percent of the poverty guideline ($61,950 for a
family of four).'
The funding mechanism would be a federal cigarette tax hike, from 39 cents to $1 per pack.
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Currently, states add an average tax of $1 per pack.
The basic finding is that some states will be dramatic winners and others big losers. There is little
correlation between SCHIP spending and smoking rates, even though both correlate generally
with poverty. This is largely caused by the considerable variation in SCHIP spending even
among states with similarly large populations of children in low-income households.
In economic terms, then, Senator Smith is suggesting that the federal government more than
double its most regressive tax-that is, the tax that hits the poor hardest. Perhaps to mitigate
this hit on the poor, he suggests that the government spend the funds on one of its most
progressive programs, that is, a program originally designed to funnel money to low-income
households with children. However, because states make their own SCHIP policies, the poor in
some states will face the higher cigarette tax but receive little in extra SCHIP spending.
Low-income families would be made much better off as a group if the SCHIP expansion were
limited to poor families and funded by raising a tax that is paid by a broad swath of the