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40 J. Offender Rehab. 1 (2004-2005)

handle is hein.journals/wjor40 and id is 1 raw text is: Journal of Offender Rehabilitation, Vol. 40 (1/2), 2004. Pp. 1-22. http://www.haworthpress.com/web/JOR @ 2004 by The Ha worth Press, Inc. All rights reserved. Digital Object Identifier: 10.1300/JO76v40n01_01 North Carolina Assessment of Risk (NCAR): Reliability and Predictive Validity with Juvenile Offenders CRAIG S. SCHWALBE Columbia University MARK W. FRASER University of North Carolina STEVEN H. DAY University of North Carolina ELIZABETH MAYFIELD ARNOLD Wake Forest University ABSTRACT Actuarial risk assessment instruments are used increasingly in juvenile justice to classify youths according to their risk of recidivism. The purpose of this article is to describe the results of two studies of one in- strument: the North Carolina Assessment of Risk (NCAR). In the first study, the inter-rater reliability of the risk assessment instrument was esti- mated with a sample of 175 court counselors who rated videotaped vi- gnettes of juvenile offenders. In the second study, predictive validity was assessed prospectively by following a statewide sample of 464 delinquent youths for 12 months. Findings indicate that the risk assessment instrument increases reliability as compared to clinical judgment. Moreover, risk scores are correlated significantly with rearrest. However, analyses also show that relationships between risk scores and recidivism vary for subgroups based on gender and race/ethnicity. Though challenges remain