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9 Pol'y Stud. J. 11 (1980-1981)

handle is hein.journals/plyssjnl9 and id is 1 raw text is: monopoly, resistant to presidential initiatives for reform. Eco- nomic analysis, to be helpful, must take such realities into account. At the same time, Mark W. Huddleston examines the impact of the 1974 Congressional Budget Reform Act and concludes that its in- tent, to increase congressional influence over appropriations, has not been realized. As regards both tax and spending policy, recent efforts at change have shown the tenaciousness of traditional practices. With respect to state tax preferences, Kent E. Portney con- cludes that states with competitive partisan alignments have placed personal income taxes rather lower in their preference orderings than other types of taxes. This is a non-obvious and rather con- founding finding, since political scientists would normally predict that competitive politics (suggesting the mobilization of the less advanced) would lead to more progressive modes of taxation. J. Norman Reid and William F. Fox present an analysis of the re- gional benefits from federal spending that is frought with political implications. The multiplier effects of different types of federal spending are examined in addition to per capita spending. Should their implications be considered by political decision-makers, old disputes may take on additional dimensions. In combination, the several essays illustrate the range of problems which invite further work. The field, obviously, is wide open and receptive to contributions from many quarters. It is our hope that readers themselves will be stimulated and encouraged to assume some part of the many tasks that remain in better under- standing tax and spending policy. THE GROWTH OF PUBLIC SPENDING TRENDS AND CYCLES IN THE COMPOSITION OF THE FEDERAL BUDGET, 1947-1978 Ronald L. Teigen, University of Michigan* ABSTRACT In this study, systematic movements in the composition of the Federal budget are studied, using a simple statistical structure which distinguishes trend, cyclical, and price-indexing phenomena. Using NIA data on budget expenditures and receipts, it is found that share movements on both sides of the budget are dominated by trends. Among expenditure categories, the shares of transfer pro- grams show strong upward trends while the defense purchases share has been trending strongly downward. On the revenue side, the shares represented by social insurance contributions and personal *The author gratefully acknowledges support provided by the Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics, University of Michigan, and the able assistance of David Garman.