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14 J. Experimental Criminology 1 (2018)

handle is hein.journals/jexpcrm14 and id is 1 raw text is: J Exp Criminol (2018) 14:1-17 CrossMark https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-017-9309-z Opting out of treatment: Self-selection bias in a randomized controlled study of a focused deterrence notification meeting Benjamin Hamilton' - Richard Rosenfeld'- Aaron Levin' Published online: 19 October 2017 O Springer Science+Business Media B.V 2017 Abstract Objectives This study investigated the role of self-selection in an evaluation of the impact of a focused deterrence notification meeting on subsequent arrests. Methods We conducted a randomized controlled study that randomly assigned proba- tioners and parolees to a treatment group asked to attend a focused deterrence notification meeting and a control group that was not asked to attend the meeting. A sizable proportion of the treatment group did not attend the meeting. We estimated intent-to-treat, average treatment, and local average treatment models to evaluate the effect of attending the notification meeting on future arrests and the effect of self-selection on the results. Results Subjects who attended the notification meeting were less likely than those who did not receive treatment to be arrested over the following 17 months. The results were not significantly affected by selection effects. Conclusions Future evaluations of focused deterrence and related criminal justice interventions should be based on randomized controlled research designs that address selection effects on the outcome. Keywords Focused deterrence - Notification meeting - Randomized controlled experiment - Selection effects The deterrence doctrine in criminology has undergone an important change in recent years with the addition of the concept and practice of focused deterrence. Focused deterrence condenses the deterrence message in two ways, first by targeting high-risk criminal offenders and then by delivering the message in face-to-face meetings with them W Richard Rosenfeld richard rosenfeld@umsl.edu University of Missouri-St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, USA 4_ Springer