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66 J. Conflict Resol. 3 (2022)

handle is hein.journals/jcfltr66 and id is 1 raw text is: Article Journal of Conflict Resolution 2022, Vol. 66(1) 3-31 © The Author(s) 2021 Article reuse guidelines: sagepub.com/journals-permissions Restraint: Do Joint DOI: 10.1177/00220027211023147 journals.sagepub.com/home/icr Military Exercises OSAGE Escalate Conflict? Raymond Kuo' and Brian Dylan Blankenship2 Abstract Multinational military exercises are among the most notable demonstrations of military cooperation and intent. On average, one is initiated every 8.9 days. But it has often been argued that joint military exercises (JMEs) increase the risk of war. Using a relational contracting approach, we claim that formal military alliances mediate the effect of JMEs. Exercises and alliances serve complementary functions: The former allows targeted responses to military provocations by adversaries, while the latter provides institutional constraints on partners and establishes a partnership's overall strategic limitations. In combination, alliances dampen the conflict escalation effects of exercises, deterring adversaries while simultaneously restraining partners. We test this theory using a two-stage model on directed dyadic data of JMEs from 1973 through 2003. We find that JMEs in general do not escalate conflict, and that JMEs conducted with allies in particular reduce the probability of conflict escalation. Keywords military alliance, restraint, relational contracting, moral hazard, deterrence, joint military exercises, signaling 'Minneapolis, MN, USA 2Department of Political Science, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA Corresponding Author: Brian Dylan Blankenship, University of Miami, 1300 Campo Sano Ave., Office 140E, Coral Gables, FL 33124, USA. Email: bdb2125@columbia.edu