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18 J. Conflict Resol. 3 (1974)

handle is hein.journals/jcfltr18 and id is 1 raw text is: The Policy Basis of General Purpose Forces A MODEL FOR QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS MICHAEL F. H. DENNIS Department of Political Science St. Thomas College A model based on Allison (1969, 1971) and Richardson (1970) links underlying policies to general purpose force procurement. Popular desires lead to overall procurement levels which are stable over a long period. A lasting bureaucratic equilibrium determines service procurement shares. Overall procurement is unaffect- ed by transnational inputs. Intraservice perceptions, not national strategic posture changes, cause changes in systems types procured. The determination of naval policies from procurements 1950-1970 of France, United Kingdom, United States, and USSR validates the model. The application of quantitative techniques to decision-making processes concerning conventional (or general purpose) forces exhibits a lack of any overall perspective based on strategic considerations. The most usual quantitative technique, cost effectiveness studies, merely attempts to assist in choosing between predetermined alternate methods of achieving a predefined capability. The strategic parameters are givens and the question becomes largely one of economics. Even this quantitative aid is lacking from much of the analysis of general purpose decision-making. Attempts to discover the strategic basis of decisions concerning general purpose forces are largely impressionistic. Quantitative data merely support a quasi-historical discussion and are not used in any systematic way (see, e.g., Deitchman, 1969). Such analysis AUTHOR'S NOTE: The research for this paper was conducted when the author was affiliated with the Political Science Department, University of Minnesota. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 18 No. 1, March 1974 @1974 Sage Publications, Inc. 131