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5 Int'l Env't Agreements: Pol. L. & Econs. 1 (2005)

handle is hein.journals/intenve5 and id is 1 raw text is: International Environmental Agreements (2005) 5:1-3 © Springer 2005 DOI 10.1007/s10784-004-3660-z Editorial introduction Scenario Analyses for the Future Climate Regime The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change is still awaiting Russia's ratification to enter into force. Even if this is achieved, many institutional problems will remain. The United States is refusing to join the Protocol; hence, the anticipated collective 5% reductions of greenhouse gases by developed countries during 2008-2012 of 1990 levels will not be achievable. Furthermore, many developed countries are not yet on track for complying with their targets, and it remains uncertain whether the US and developing countries will join this regime with its legally binding commitments. It is also uncertain whether they will take on more ambitious emission caps in the future. The negotiations on the next commitment period from 2013 are expected to begin in 2005. Recognizing that an agreement on future commitments is essential for meeting the long-term expectations of policymakers and stakeholders, many coun- tries have already begun internal debates on the future regime. There are two major schools of thoughts in the current debate. One is the con- tinuation of the binding cap approach of the Kyoto Protocol with slight modifica- tions. These may include setting intensity targets to secure participation by the US and developing countries, and setting a global greenhouse gas concentration target, such as 550 ppm, to secure environmental integrity. The other school of thought envisages a drastic change in the structure of the climate regime. For example, it proposes to put more emphasis on the promotion of technological change and sustainable development, either as instruments to flank the Kyoto Protocol or as an alternative to the current regime. 1. Scenario Analysis This special edition provides scenario analyses of the institutional dimension of climate regime. Scenario analysis is a powerful tool to assess how alternative futures may evolve given the wide range of uncertainties in key drivers and consequences. High uncertainties are inherent in all key variables of climate change, including demography, economic growth, technological change, political situation, atmo- spheric science, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity. Scenario analysis is widely used in the private sector for making strategic decisions (Schwartz 1991). It is also utilized to identify the range of possible future outcomes that may evolve as a function of key drivers and collective political decisions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has, for example, conducted a scenario analysis of global greenhouse gas emissions for this purpose (IPCC 2000; IPCC 2001).