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23 American J. Crim. Just. 1 (1998-1999)

handle is hein.journals/acnjrlocm23 and id is 1 raw text is: PATTERNS OF VIOLENT SPECIALIZATION: Predictors of Recidivism for a Cohort of Parolees SHAWN L. SCHWANERt University of Louisville ABSTRACT: Historically, there has been interest in the unfolding of criminal careers, especially in the persistence, specialization, and prediction of violent re- cidivism. Specialization in violent crime is particularly important as both the pub- lic and politicians have called for longer sentences, incapacitation, and prison expansion for violent offenders. However, research on the specialization of vio- lent crime has been largely overlooked in spite of its importance to criminal justice practitioners and public interest. To examine the specialization in crime, this re- search uses data collected in Ohio in 1989 on a cohort of 3,353 parolees released from prison. Specialization is defined as the exclusive admission to prison for a violent crime with a subsequent violent recidivism offense. Logistic regression is used to delineate predictors of violent specialization. Race, county of commit- ment, age at release, time served, number of prior felony convictions, and number of prior parole revocations are found to be related to violent specialization. Prisons are reserved for society's most dangerous criminal offend- ers. In light of the common mythology of increasing violent crime, the public has clamored for tougher legislation, notification laws, prison ex- pansion, and incapacitation of violent offenders but works with little empirical knowledge about recidivism. Similarly, parole has been scru- tinized, restructured, and in some states abolished, in response to the get tough and three strikes and you're out ideology. During the 1988 presidential race, images of Willie Horton undermined the credi- bility of parole and conjured public and political concern over repeat violent offenders (Tonry, 1995). In regard to parole, more research is needed to establish the extent to which violent offenders released onto parole specialize in violent crime by returning for a subsequent violent crime and whether actuarial techniques can predict such recidivism pat- terns. Such findings would support or refute notions of selective inca- pacitation, longer sentences for violent offenders, and whether an inmate incarcerated for a violent crime receives parole at a parole hearing. t Direct all correspondence to: Shawn L. Schwaner, Department of Sociology, Uni- versity of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40292. E-mail: slschw0l@gwise.louisville.edu AMERICAN JOURNAL OF CRIMINAL JUSTICE, Vol. 23 No. 1, 1998 © 1998 Southern Criminal Justice Association