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1 [1] (August 16, 2017)

handle is hein.crs/govcguw0001 and id is 1 raw text is: v.n China-India Rivalry in the Indian Ocean August 16, 2017 Rivalry between China and India, the world's two most populous nations, appears to be increasing. While tensions over the two nations' disputed border and other diplomatic frictions have attracted attention in recent months, the China-India rivalry is also expanding into the Indian Ocean. Congress may consider the implications of this evolving strategic rivalry for U.S. interests and strategic balances of Asia. The Indian Ocean region (IOR) was a center of strategic competition for European colonial powers, including the Portuguese, Dutch, French, and British. The British East India Company's presence in the subcontinent is one example of this. China and other Asian powers have also played a role in the IOR. The voyages of Zheng He (1405- 1433), for example, briefly extended Chinese influence into the Indian Ocean. The economic rise of China, India, and other Asian nations, and the rapid associated growth in seaborne trade and energy that transits the Indian Ocean, is making the region increasingly significant. Approximately 50% of the world's container traffic and 70% of its petroleum shipments transit the Indian Ocean. The Indian Ocean littoral region encompassed 2.49 billion people in 2010, representing more than one-third of the world's population. It is estimated that by 2030 the population in the IOR will have expanded by 27%. An estimated 15% of the world's fish catch comes from the Indian Ocean, and it may have additional hydrocarbon reserves that may further increase its strategic importance. China's developing strategic presence in the IOR is manifesting itself largely through port and infrastructure projects, and through its first regional military base. China's development and investment projects have gained strategic coherence through Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This initiative is intended to develop trade and energy routes through the Indian Ocean and its littoral. The BRI's most high-profile project is the $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor designed to link China's west through Pakistan to Pakistan's Gwadar Port on the Arabian Sea. China has also proposed a Bangladesh-China-India- Myanmar (BCIM) Economic Corridor. The Kunming- Kyaukpyu, Burma segment of the BCIM has moved forward. China is rebuilding its ties with Burma and may augment its oil and gas linkages with that country by developing a Special Economic Zone at Kyaukpyu on the Bay of Bengal. China has agreed to sell submarines to Bangladesh and Pakistan and has also invested heavily in port facilities and other infrastructure in Hambantota, Colombo, and elsewhere in Sri Lanka. China is developing investments in port, rail, and pipeline projects in Malaysia, including at Melaka, Selankor, and Perak. Malaysia recently agreed to purchase four Chinese littoral mission ships. China also reportedly leased an island in the Maldives to develop Maritime Silkroad infrastructure. In addition, in July 2017, China sent troops to Djibouti to set up its first-ever overseas military base. The base will reportedly support Chinese naval ships operating in the region. Djibouti's location on the Horn of Africa gives it access to the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Mediterranean Sea with the Indian Ocean via the Suez Canal. A 2016 U.S. Defense Department report to Congress states that China's military modernization program has become more focused on supporting missions beyond China's periphery, including power projection [and] sea lane security ... China most likely will seek to establish additional military bases in countries with which it has a longstanding friendly relationship and similar strategic interests, such as Pakistan. Figure I.Indo-Pacific Energy and Trade Routes Source: CRS map by Hannah Fischer with data from the South China Morning Post (2017); the Deparmient of State (2015); Esri (2016); DeLorme (2016). Analysts believe the China-India rivalry could spur the more rapid development and deployment of naval assets on both sides, and in the region more broadly. This geographic expansion of strategic competition between China and India may increase strategic linkages between the Asia-Pacific and the Indian Ocean regions, creating a larger, increasingly interactive Indo-Pacific region including increased competition for energy and other resources across the IOR. The potential for increasing competition with China may add impetus in India to further develop its relationship with the United States and/or other regional partners in the Indo- Pacific, such as Japan and Australia. Great power competition may also offer opportunities for Indian Ocean littoral states to gain foreign aid, military assistance, and possibly trade and investment. The expansion of Indian and Chinese naval capabilities and presence and increased 4k,' .=== = = = = = == ....::: .:: : ; ...: ::......... r ~1 D!Sluted Lanr .O 'T gognpq 'popmm- , goo g , q 's a X 11LULANJILiN,