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1 [1] (March 23, 2016)

handle is hein.crs/govcdww0001 and id is 1 raw text is: FF. ' riES- - rh ,i , March 23, 2016 China's Greenhouse Gas and Energy Proposals for 2016-2020 On March 16, 2016, China's National People's Congress adopted a 13th Five-Year Plan (FYP), for 2016-2020, that sets goals of tighter limits on polluting emissions and accelerating a shift away from coal-fired electricity supply toward greater efficiency and non-fossil energy. Questions remain on specific measures to achieve targets- particularly regarding electric grid interconnection and other policy reforms, performance data quality, and effective enforcement. Despite questions about data quality, it appears that China met related goals in its 12th FYP. Some in the U.S. Congress consider the value of U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions to be partly contingent on China's emissions performance. The legitimacy of the Communist Party of China depends on continued improvement in the well-being of the people. For decades, well-being was usually measured primarily by economic growth, such as increases to Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The emphasis on GDP growth came at the expense of other aspects of well-being, such as healthful air. By the mid-2000s, in the 1 1th FYP (2006-2010), central policymakers publicly recognized the high costs to China's environmental quality and public health of a growth-at-any-cost focus. Three problems converged: 1. Increasingly severe domestic air, water, and soil pollution and regional water scarcity; 2. International pressure on China (which depends heavily on coal) to reduce its GHG emissions associated with global climate change; and 3. Growing dependence on foreign energy supply. China's 13th FYP continues a shift toward limiting the adverse environmental consequences of economic development. In a recent press conference, Chinese Vice Minister of Environmental Protection Wu Xiaoqing stated that China shall not trade environment for GDP growth in the short term, which is not sustainable (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-03/07/ c_135164022.htm). China surpassed the United States to become the largest emitter of GHG globally around 2006. It releases more than one-quarter of all fossil-fuel-related carbon dioxide (C02) emissions. Halting the increase of atmospheric concentrations of CO2 would be extremely difficult without China reducing its net emissions to near zero along with other major emitters. Other nations also require China's participation in GHG reductions to avoid adverse effects on trade competitiveness and leakage of emissions-that is, activities shifting to locations without comparable controls. The Chinese government pledged to participate in a global effort to address GHG emissions. In the context of the 2015 Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, China pledged to: * peak CO2 emissions around 2030, perhaps earlier; * launch in 2017 a national GHG emissions cap-and-trade system covering electricity and five other industries; * increase the non-fossil share of China's energy to around 20% by 2030; * lower CO2 emitted per unit of GDP by 60-65% compared with 2005; * expand forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters; and * control emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)- another type of potent GHG-by 2020. China's statement included a host of existing and planned measures to achieve these and additional targets. k-' rn ,,,o 'a and k,,-,)'gy i , V ', The 1 3th FYP ratchets up domestic targets affecting GHG emissions and related energy structures. Lower envisioned economic growth than in recent years-the new normal-will suppress the growth of demand for energy and related emissions, as will a promoted shift toward services and higher value-added production. The 1 3th FYP lists a better-quality, more efficient, upgraded economy as the second among the five major national targets. It aims at GDP growth of 6.5-7.0% annually in 2016-2020. At the same time, the plan caps primary energy consumption at 5 billion metric tons of coal equivalent (compared with about 4.3 billion in 2015). The plan includes targets to: * reduce CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (CO2 intensity) by 40-45% by 2020 compared with 2005, cutting CO2 intensity byl8% (-3.9% annually) during 2016-2020; * reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP by 15% (-3.4% annually) in 2016-2020; and * increase the share of non-fossil fuels in the primary energy supply to 15% by 2020, compared with 12% in 2015. The plan also proposes a ban on commercial logging in natural forests. Overall, the 1 3th FYP would shift from boosting energy supply to achieving the real low-carbon economy by providing incentives aimed at enterprises, consumers, investors, and investments to promote technology advances. Identification of concrete measures are expected in a promised strategy to 2030 for revolutionizing energy generation and consumption, push forward the transformation and development of the energy sector, and exercise control over both the total amount and .O 'T gognpo goo g , q 'S a X 11LULANJILiN,