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November 4, 2015


Assessing Burma's Parliamentary Elections


On November 8, 2015, Burma (Myanmar) is scheduled to
hold its second nationwide parliamentary election since the
military junta that seized power in 1962 transferred power
to a mixed civilian/military government in March 2011.
President Them Sein and the Union Election Commission
(UEC) have promised that the election will be free and fair
according to international standards. The Obama
Administration has called on the Burmese authorities to
hold transparent, inclusive, and credible elections.

Developments during the campaign period and some
aspects of the election rules and regulations have prompted
concerns that the elections could fall short of being either
free and fair, or transparent, inclusive, and credible.
Some observers argue that President Them Sein, the UEC,
Burma's military (also known as the Tatmadaw), and the
pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party
(USDP) appear to be seeking to ensure that the USDP wins
enough seats in Burma's bicameral Union Parliament to
retain power and select a pro-military president. Other
observers, however, argue that despite some irregularities in
the election process, the results will likely reflect the wishes
of the Burmese people.



For many years, the international community has judged
elections around the world by whether observers deemed
them to be free and fair. In March 1994, the Inter-
Parliamentary Union (IPU), to which Burma is a member
and the United States is not, adopted a set of criteria for free
and fair elections. Those criteria covered voting and
election rights, the rights and responsibilities of candidates
and political parties, and the rights and responsibilities of
the government in conducting free and fair elections.
Among the criteria are the right of every adult citizen to
vote on a non-discriminatory basis; the right to appeal if
denied the right to vote; the right to campaign on an equal
basis throughout the country; equal access to the media for
all candidates and political parties; the provision of an
effective, impartial and non-discriminatory procedure for
the registration of voters; and the provision of a voting
process so as to avoid fraud or other illegality.

Some observers have challenged the use of free and fair
for being too vague and potentially implying thresholds that
could be too high for many countries realistically to meet.
The Obama Administration and the State Department have
generally used the terms transparent, inclusive, and
credible with reference to assessing the Burmese elections.


Several recent developments prompt concerns about
whether Burma's upcoming elections will meet either
standard or those international standards.


Burma's 2008 constitution confers complete authority over
elections to the Union Election Commission (UEC), which
is appointed by the president. The chairman is Tin Aye, a
retired lieutenant general and previously a USDP member
of parliament. Under the constitution, the UEC's decisions
are final and conclusive with respect to the conduct of the
elections, the campaign activities of political parties and
their candidates, the counting of the ballots, and the
announcement of the official results.

The UEC is permitting international election monitors,
including delegations from the Carter Center and the
European Union, as well as the foreign embassies in
Burma. The election monitors reportedly are not being
provided full access to advance balloting, particularly on
military installations. Access to advance balloting may be
important as the results in 2010 were affected by the last-
minute delivery of ballot boxes containing advance ballots.

The UEC issued the election rules in May 2014, but
subsequently revised them after complaints from various
political parties who felt the rules were overly restrictive.
Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy
(NLD) and other political parties claim that their candidates
are being arbitrarily and unfairly restricted in their
campaign activities by local UEC officials citing provisions
in the revised election rules and regulations.

The UEC has also been criticized for its lack of
transparency over its rejection of 88 candidates, including
17 of the 18 candidates from the largely-Muslim
Democracy and Human Rights Party (DHRP) and at least
one Rohingya candidate who is currently a member of
parliament, Shwe Maung. While 11 of the candidates,
including Shwe Maung, were reinstated as candidates upon
appeal, the circumstances around the initial decision to bar
their candidacies remain unclear.


In terms of the number of political parties fielding
candidates, the 2015 elections are expected to be more
inclusive than the 2010 elections. A total of 92 political
parties have candidates in the 2015 election, compared to
40 in 2010. However, in terms of the number of people
eligible to vote, the 2015 elections may be viewed as less
inclusive than the 2010 elections.

The UEC has experienced continuing problems in
compiling an accurate voter registration list. In late May,
the UEC posted initial voter registration lists across the
country, which the NLD and other political parties claimed
were 30%-80% inaccurate. The UEC made revisions to the
lists, which were posted in late September. However, the
NLD and others continued to find errors, including fake


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