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CRS   INSIGHT


Brazil's Presidential Election

Updated October 16, 2018 (IN10976)




Related   Author


      Peter J. Mever




Peter J. Meyer, Specialist in Latin American Affairs (pme   rcr- Ic , 7-5474)

Brazil-the fifth most populous country and ninth-largest economy in the world-held general elections on October 7,
2018. Antiestablishment sentiment carried the day, as Brazilians replaced almost half of their congressional
representatives and nearly elected a right-wing populist to the presidency. A presidential runoff election, scheduled for
October 28, will have significant implications for the economic and foreign policies of this U.S. strategicpartnfer.

Domestic Context

Over the past several years, Brazil has struggled to emerge from a series of domestic crises. The country fell into a deep
recession in 2014, due to a decline in global commodity prices and economic mismanagement under the center-left
Workers Party (PT) government of President Dilma Rousseff (2011-2016). The unemployment rate more than doubled
as real gross domestic product contracted by more than 3L from 2015 to 2016. Although economic growth returned in
2017, conditions remain difficult. More than i2% of the population is unemployed, and seveyral million formerly
middle-class Brazilians now live in poverty. Budget cuts have exacerbated the situation, limiting the capacity of
Brazilian authorities to provide social services and address challenges such as escalating crime and violence.

Brazil also is contending with the repercussions of massive corruption scandals. Since 2014, investigators have
uncovered arrangements throughout the public sector in which businesses provided bribes and illegal campaign
donations to politicians in exchange for contracts or other favorable government treatment. The revelations discredited
much  of Brazil's political establishment and contributed to the controversial impeachment and removal from office of
President Rousseff in August 2016. These repeated political crises have polarized Brazilian society and significantly
.reded Brazilians' faith in democracy.

President Michel Temer, who succeeded Rousseff, is deeply unpopular. His center-right government has enacted several
major economic reforms, including measures to freeze government spending for 20 years, weaken worker protections,
and allow greater private sector participation in Brazil's oil sector. Temer also has worked with the Brazilian congress to
shield himself from corruption charges. Although international investors have applauded Temer's economic policies,
89%  of Brazilians disapprove of his administration.

Election Results

The October 7 elections demonstrated widespread dissatisfaction with Brazil's political class. Voters Mated 75% of