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CRS INSIGHT


Argentina's 2015 Presidential Election

October 26, 2015 (IN10378)




Related Author


     *Mark P. Sullhin



Mark P. Sullivan, Specialist in Latin American Affairs (msullivanaers. oc gov, 7-7689)

Argentines went to the polls on October 25, 2015, to vote in the first round of a presidential race to succeed President
Cristina Fernindez de Kirchner, who hails from the Peronist party's leftist faction known as the Front of Victory (FPV).
The close results set up a second round on November 22, 2015, between Daniel Scioli, governor of Buenos Aires
province running under the banner of President Fernandez's FPV, and Mauici Maci, mayor of Buenos Aires, heading
the Let's Change coalition that includes center-right and center-left opposition parties. In the first round, with 970 Q
thQ votes cunjd, Scioli received 36.86% of the vote, Macri received 34.33%, and Sergio Massa, a deputy in
Argentina's Congress who heads a centrist dissident Peronist faction known as United for a New Alternative (UNA),
received 21.34%. A second round is required since no candidate received 45% of the vote or 40% of the vote with a 10-
point lead.

The contest is significant since it is the first time in 12 years that a Kirchner will not be president. Fernandez is serving
her second term since 2007, when she succeeded her husband, the late Nestor Kirchner, who served one term beginning
in 2003. Fernandez is ineligible to run for a third consecutive term, although she would be eligible to run again in 2019.
Going into the first round, many observers believed that any of the leading candidates for president would espouse
more market-friendly policies than those of the current government, which include currency and price controls and
import restrictions. Many also believed that Argentina's next government will be more committed to maintaining
constructive relations with the United States, including a resolution of the long-standing dispute with holdout creditors
who did not participate in previous debt restructurings.

Scioli Versus Macri

Going into the first round, Scioli had been topping opinion polls and won a combined op n rimar in August with
38.7% of the national vote. Macri placed second in the primary with 30.1% of the vote, while Massa came in third with
20.6%. Leading up to the first round, somepDiiing saw a second round as likely, while other polling had shown Scioli
having enough support to win in the first round. Macri and Massa had been battling for second place and a chance to
confront Scioli in a second round.

Scioli is the governor of Buenos Aires province and was a close ally of President Kirchner, serving as his vice president
from 2003 to 2007. Going into the presidential race, Scioli reportedly was not close to President Fernindez, but
ultimately received her endorsement and benefitted from the president's rising public support. Fernindez endorsed
Scioli after he accepted as his vice presidential running mate the Kirchners' long-time supporter Carlos Zannini, who
serves as the president's legal secretary. During the primary campaign, Scioli vied to win the support of the Kirchners'
leftist supporters by emphasizing continuity with the government programs and a strong government role in the