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Canada's October 2015 Elections

August 19, 2015 (IN10343)





Peter J. Meyer, Analyst in Latin American Affairs (Dmeercrs bc gov, 7-5474)
lan F. Fergusson, Specialist in International Trade and Finance (ifergusson crs.1oc gov. 7-4997)

Canada's next election is scheduled for October 19, 2015. It is being held at a time of slowing economic growth and
ongoing  controversies over anti-terrorism legislation and Canada's role in combating the Islamic State. The outcome of
the election may have implications for the United States, which is Canada's largest trading partner, largest energy
consumer,  and NATO  ally (see CRS Report 96-3 97, Can(ada-_S. Relations).

Electoral System

Canada is a constitutional monarchy (Elizabeth II is Queen of Canada) with a bicameral Westminster-style Parliament
that includes an elected House of Commons and an appointed Senate. In the upcoming election, 338 Members of
Parliament will be elected from individual districts (ridings) under a first-past-the-post system, which only requires a
plurality of the vote to win a seat. The party winning the most seats typically gets the first chance to form a
government.  A government lasts as long as it can command a parliamentary majority for its policies, for a maximum of
four years. If no single party holds a majority of seats, a minority government can be formed that attempts to pass
legislation on a vote-by-vote basis. If a government loses a vote of confidence, new elections can be called, or the
Governor-General  (the Queen's representative) can offer other parties a chance to form a government.

Major Political Parties

Three major national parties are competing for votes. The incumbent Conservative Party, led by Prime Minister Stephen
Harper, has been in power since 2006, and has governed with a majority since winning 166 seats in the last election in
2011. The Conservatives are running on their management of the economy during the recovery from the 2008 financial
crisis and the enactment of anti-terrorism legislation following the Parliament Hill shootines of October 2014.
However,  the recent decline in the price of oil has taken a toll on the economy, which is now in recession, and the anti-
terrorism law has proved controversial. It includes increased surveillance, greater information sharing among
government  agencies, and new powers for Canadian authorities to disrupt suspected plots. Harper has also been faulted
for not following through on his pledge to reform the Canadian Senate, many members of which have been implicated
in scandals in recent years.

The  ew  Dema       Pary  (NDP), led by Thomas Mulcair, is the Official Opposition. The NDP achieved a
breakthrough in the 2011 election, making significant gains in Quebec at the expense of the separatist Bloq Quebecois
and  supplanting the Liberal Party as the main left-of-center party in Parliament with 103 seats. Mulcair's NDP has
differentiated itself from both the Conservatives and the Liberals by opposing the anti-terrorism law on civil-liberties
grounds, advocating a slight increase in corporate taxation, and pledging to withdraw Canadian forces from the anti-
ISIS campaign in Iraq.

The Liberal Part, the dominant party during much of the 20th century, won only 34 seats in the 2011 election, its worst
showing  ever. The election of Justin Trudeau-son of former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau (1968-1979, 1980-1984)
-as  party leader helped the Liberals recover some support, but the 43-year-old has been hurt by his perceived lack of
experience. He also has been criticized for his stance on the anti-terrorism law, voting for it but declaring he would
enhance  oversight and privacy safeguards if elected. Some analysts have attributed the withering of the Liberal Party to
the increased .larizatioof   nadian elector