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1 [1] (October 22, 2014)

handle is hein.crs/crsmthaadle0001 and id is 1 raw text is: CRS Insights Brazil's October 2014 Presidential Election Peter J. Meyer, Analyst in Latin American Affairs (pm=r(crs.Locgv, 7-5474) October 22, 2014 _II17) Brazil, the fifth most populous country and seventh largest economy in the world, held presidential, legislative, and state office elections on October 5, 2014. President Dilma Rousseff of the center-left Workers Party (PT) won a plurality of the presidential vote with 4L60/Q. Since she failed to win an absolute majority, however, she must contest a second round runoff on October 26, 2014. She will face Acio Neves of the centrist Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), who finished second with 33.6% of the vote. The race appears to be headed to a close finish, and could lead to changes in the economic and foreign policies of a nation that the Obama Administration considers to be an emerging cnter of influnc, Presidential Race President Rousseff was originally elected to a four-year term in 2010 after promising to maintain the popular policies of President Luis In~cio Lula da Silva (2003-2010), during whose administration the Brazilian economy expanded by an average of 42Q per year, poverty and inequality were redume signific , and nearly 40 million Brazilians joined the middle class. The economy has slowed since Rousseff took office, however, and inflation has increased; the Brazilian government ezpects growth to fall to 0.9% and inflation to reach 6.2% this year. While unemployment has remained near record lows, many Brazilians r by the stagnation in their living standarda. Mass demonstrations took place across the country in June 2013, with citizens taking to the streets to denounce corruption and call for better quality public services. The political opposition has sought to capitalize on Rousseff's failure to meet citizens' rising expectations by promising a change in direction. Neves, a senator and former governor of the state of Minas Gerais, has promised to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the Brazilian government and implement business-friendly economic policies. He also has criticized Rousseff and the PT for presiding over a series of corruption scandals and has accused them of politicizing state-owned enterprises and government ministries. Rousseff and the PT have responded by alleing that the political opposition would end popular social welfare programs and threaten the socioeconomic gains made in Brazil over the past 12 years. Those accusations were successful in eroding support for Marina Silva, who campaigned under the banner of the center-left Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) and appeared to be the biggest threat to Rousseff until the final days of the first round election; she finished with 21.3% of the vote. Neves is also vulnerable to such charges since many Brazilians view the PSDB as the party of Brazil's privileged elite and associate it with the Fernando Henrigue Cardoso Administration (1995-2002), which successfully reduced inflation but presided over weak economic growth and high unemployment. Rousseff's campaign tactics appear to be working as polling indicates she holds a slight lead heading into the second round vote. While early polls of the second round election gave Neves the edge, an ctobe.r 20 poll found that Rousseff now leads 52%-48%. Over the past two weeks, Neves' rejection rate has risen from 34% to 40%. During the same time period, the percentage of Brazilians rating the Rousseff Administration as good or great has risen from 39% to 42%-giving the president her highest approval rating since the June 2013 protests. Figure 1. First Round Results and Second Round Voting Intentions