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1 Dan Ready, et al., An Analysis of the President's 2025 Budget 1 (October 4, 2024)

handle is hein.congrec/aysoteps0001 and id is 1 raw text is: On March 11, 2024, the Administration submitted its annual set of budgetary pro- posals to the Congress.1 In this report, the Congressional Budget Office examines how those proposals, if enacted, would affect budgetary out- comes in relation to CBO's most recent baseline budget projections.2 Those projections extend from 2024 to 2034 and reflect the assumption that current laws governing federal spending and revenues will generally remain in place. CBO's baseline budget projections and its analysis of the President's proposals are based on the agency's eco- nomic forecast published in June, which reflects develop- ments through early May.3 (In this analysis, any feed- back from the macroeconomic effects of the President's proposed policies is excluded.) This analysis incorporates estimates of the President's proposals that the staff of the Joint Committee on 1. This analysis does not include the budgetary effects of the amendments to the proposed budget that the Administration submitted to the Congress on May 22, 2024, or the updated estimates contained in the 2025 Mid-Session Review, which the Administration released on July 19, 2024. 2. Earlier this year, CBO issued a report analyzing the budgetary effects of the President's proposals for discretionary spending. See Congressional Budget Office, An Analysis ofthe Discretionary Spending Proposals in the Presidents 2025 Budget (June 2024), www.cbo.gov/publication/60041. This report combines an analysis of the President's policy proposals that affect revenues and mandatory spending with that earlier analysis of the discretionary spending proposals. 3. For CBO's most recent baseline budget and economic projections, see Congressional Budget Office, An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034 (June 2024), www.cbo.gov/ publication/60039. CBO's baseline is intended to provide a benchmark that policymakers can use to assess the potential effects of policy changes on federal spending and revenues and, therefore, on deficits and debt. Taxation (JCT) and CBO completed as of September 17, 2024.4 It does not include all proposals with major budgetary effects contained in the Administration's budget. As a result, this report does not include projec- tions of total revenues, spending, deficits, and debt under the President's budget. The proposals not included are estimated by the Administration to increase revenues by $1.0 trillion, on net, over the 2025-2034 period and to increase outlays by $0.2 trillion, on net, over the same period (in relation to the amounts projected in the Administration's baseline). Based on estimates that were available as of September 17, over the 2025-2034 period, the President's proposals that JCT and CBO analyzed would have the following budgetary effects (in relation to the amounts projected in CBO's baseline): • They would increase revenues by $2.8 trillion. About a third of that estimated increase would stem from raising the corporate income tax rate from 21 percent to 28 percent (see Table 1). • They would increase mandatory outlays by $2.3 trillion across a wide variety of programs, most of them related to income security; health care; and education, training, employment, and social services. • They would decrease discretionary outlays by $0.9 trillion because requested funding designated as an emergency requirement is much less than the amount CBO projected in its baseline. This analysis is based on CBO's and JCT's bud- get estimates, not the Administration's. Some of the 4. JCT's staff is responsible for estimating the effects of most proposals that would affect revenues. Some of those proposals would affect refundable tax credits, which also affect mandatory spending. Notes: All years referred to are federal fiscal years, which run from October 1 to September 30 and are designated by the calendar year in which they end. Numbers in the text and tables may not add up to totals because of rounding. Supplemental data for this analysis are available on CBO's website (www.cbo.gov/ publication/60438), as are previous editions of this report (https://tinyurl.com/3aph9zde).