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1 1 (January 18, 2022)

handle is hein.amenin/aeiaefq0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Key Points China claims its outbound investment and construction did not redou nd from the pan- dernic; rather, I never sufferecr from the panrlemic at all. The China Global 'nvesrment kr shows 2021 to be stronger year, but only mildly, with .he irnpac of COVID-9 still oovioua in Chinese corpo rate disclosures e Dri linc down, the Be t ania Roa' . Initiative (FR) has held up well. Chinese irvestrnent in BI members oulpeomed ot in rihr econrmies, and the BRI continues to dorm na te :hn', overseas constr utin. By s *or, the com modities hase picked up bu in 2021 and could itensy urther, if prices ofmsome ornmodties rise s anti-cipaed. American policy shoud b mo-e -ocused on investment goirg the other direction, to Cina The amoiunt o money headed Just to CIna in 2017-20 exceeded China's goba in vestment in that period.. Y policymak:rs do not even k:now wht the ney is supporting. The China Gl bal investment Tracker was created in 20 )because officia. Chinese data were uninform- maive. The tracker instead uses disclosures from individual compa nis. Bo h the tracker and official data inproved in qcuaht until the COVID--19 out-- break. Since then, Chinese goverment claims about outbound investment cannot be verified throuoh corporate public disclos:re. Tracker numbers are reasonable but see larg gaps than prevously As a result, the two series have sharply divrg-d, lhe balance of evidence says 20 outbound Chinese investment dropped far more than Beijing admis, q with limited recovery in 2 2. The China Global Investment Tracker (CGITI) from the American Enterprise institute and Herit- age Foundation is the most complete public record of China's investment and construction world wide, with over 1,000 transac i ms from 2005 through 2021. Until 201', the CGIT approximated offcial. CInese figures vhie p roiy'ding far more useful cointir and sector 'reakdowns. Remaining discrepancies -were likely to be track e omissions. The pan demic broug hr two chiangs. Because the CGIT excludes transactions below y$95 million, it misses proprtionally more deals dhging dmn- turns, %whei they naturally get smaller. Second, official data now have worse problems. For 200, when China then the world was hit by CO I)P9, - iejing nonetheless clainas outbound investment resel percent7 The gain was smooth over the most disruptive year in recent memory. Nearly 85 percent of spending was outside the Belt and Road Initiative (BRi largely in richer countries with greater transparency. Yet no outside source