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1 1 (February 8, 2021)

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Key  Points

  t eray-zone  aggression als  ciace in the gray zone between war and peace ani is used
     to weaken another country usino means short of war.

     Using it is aciva ntageous to the attacker, as i nnvoiyes far snaler risks and expenses than
     armed aggression does, and to date resuits in scant punishment.

  *  Russia and China are today's main practitioners of gray-zone aggression against the
     West, each using a different cn bina ion of meanCs aggr-ssion.

     Because gray-zone aggression exp its open soc: es' vulnerabilities, any country can
     use the opportunity and can create new means of a gmssion.


e As it Uoes not involve the sustained use of
  deterrence must include aIl parts o` society.


force and targets c'v' soca-ty, defense and


This report, adapted from the forthconing hook
The  Dcendcrs  Dfecoa,  discusses the nature of
gray-zone aggression and offers policy proposals
on how  to deter it. Although gray--zone aggression
is not new, it is coming into increasing use due to
two converging trends: Armed confl it as a tool to
settle affairs between countries is declhing in the
industrialized world, but countes are not mtanaging
to coexist peaceiAlly. That me ans countries use tools
m tie gray zone between war and peace to weaken
their a deisaries while strengthening their own posi-
tions. These tools can be both legal and illegal.
   Whie  liberal denocracis are more open  tian
authoritarian ones are and more  constrained by
laws, tules,   cAl standards, and scrutiny by ie
voting pubc,  they are at a disadvantage visa-
their authorit'aria rivals. That leaves liberal democ--
racies dangerously exposeId to gray-zone aggressiona,


as demonstrated ,y incidents in late 2020 such as
the Rtssian Sol aWiads  yb ertaonk that engulfed
significant parts of the US government and China's
punitive tariff'. n'n Austroain wne.
   A second report, also adaptd  rom  the book,
wit; outline a strategy for defense aga inst, and deter-
rence of, gray-zone threats. The policy proposals will
include

  * Strengthe ning citizen resilience through
    voluntary resilience training,

  o Strengthening  private-sector  resilience
     hrougli joned   armed   forces-indnstry
     gray-zone deense exercises, and

  SImplementing  asymmetric retaliation. West-
    eir governInents must on occasion retali-
    ate against gray-zone attacks but cannot,
    and should not, respond to gray-zone attacks


ANINVOR'-  \ SA